Insights

One of the more curious phenomena over the last few years has been the remarkable rise in so called “gray divorces,” which describes longer-term, married couples who are divorcing later in life, usually age 55 and older. In fact, the number of gray divorces has tripled over the last 30 years. Currently, more than one in three people who divorce in the United States are over age 50, and people aged 55 and older account for 25% of all divorces. The rise in gray divorce, particularly among aging baby boomers, can be attributed to a few things. People are living…

Investors have been troubled with constant news reports of inflation, higher interest rates, and a slowing economy. This all culminates into the age-old question: What will the Federal Reserve do Next? When will they act? Are they too late? The consensus among economists in January was that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates six times over the course of this year to prevent a recession. Yet, the economic data has continued to be strong, such that the consensus has now reduced the number of expected rate cuts to two – or less! No question, the stock market is very…

One of the investment questions we are repeatedly asked (especially during presidential election years) is how the upcoming election will affect my portfolio. What if (insert politician name here) wins? Should I completely rebalance my portfolio? Should I move into cash? To that I say, I can only share with you the facts of how political elections affect markets. Over the last 100 years, stocks have averaged a 9-10% annual rate of return, with the political party in power making a statistically negligible difference. In fact, if you go back 150 years and look at a balanced 60/40 stock-to-bond portfolio,…

What a difference a year makes. At the beginning of 2023, I told clients to expect a strong, rebounding market. At the time, bearishness among investors was near an all-time high after a sharp market decline in 2022. In fact, the vast majority of economists and market strategists were predicting a recession to unfold by midyear. Yet, my rationale for being bullish was based on a few crucial historical patterns and trends. Specifically, I cited that markets rarely double down on yearly declines and that the third year of the presidential election cycle was far and away the strongest year…

In the wee hours of June 26th (5am to be exact), J.W. Burns & Company’s own Andrew Derrenbacker started a marathon game of golf, spanning almost 12 hours and over 34,000 steps (the equivalent to 6 lengths of New York’s Central Park). The 102 holes were played for the United Way’s “Raising The Green” charity event, which in all generated $18,834 for the charity’s many worthwhile causes. Drew is also a board member for the United Way of Central New York. We’re so proud of Drew and co-golfer Bill Patrick’s amazing feat! A special thanks to the United Way and…

One of the many topics I address with my clients is college savings for their family. Aside from retirement planning, this can be one of the most important financial issues they face. Costs of higher education are soaring. For example, the 2022-2023 total cost at Syracuse University has breached $77,000. At the same time, student loan debt in the United States totals a mind numbing $1.75 trillion. These two connected factors are forcing parents and their children to begin planning for college earlier and rethink the “traditional college experience” altogether. After all, they are making decisions that will impact both…

“Banking is a very good business if you don’t do anything dumb.” Warren Buffett Dear Clients and Friends, As you are no doubt aware, our nation’s banking system has come under intense scrutiny in recent days. Last week, Silicon Valley Bank, a prominent institution amongst technology companies and venture capitalists, collapsed and was seized by the federal government. This marked the largest U.S. bank failure since 2008. So, let me share an overview of what has happened and our outlook going forward. In essence, Silicon Valley Bank owned mostly long-term government bonds to generate cash to cover their deposits. These…

“Good fortune often happens when opportunity meets preparation.” – Thomas Edison We thought we’d share some critical year-end financial planning suggestions for you and your family to review. These can put you in great financial shape for the start of the new year. Tax Loss Harvesting: If there’s one positive takeaway from 2022’s down market, it’s the opportunity to take investment losses. Investors can use realized losses to offset realized capital gains, and losses that exceed gains can be used to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary annual income. Furthermore, excess losses can be carried forward to future years and…

“There is two things that can disrupt the business in this country. One is War, and the other is a meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank.” – Will Rogers I’ve been getting a lot of questions from clients who really want to understand the connection between the Federal Reserve, the economy, and the stock market – especially as it relates to their investment portfolios. As we all know, 2022 has been a very painful year for investors. Stocks, bonds, real estate – you name it – have had their values compressed significantly. The main culprit is the approximately 8.5% increase…

The stock market’s decline intensified during the second quarter of 2022. The S&P 500 Index fell 16.10% for the three-month period ending June 30. For stocks, this was the worst first half of a year since 1970. Despite the pain, we believe the second half of 2022 will provide solid returns for stocks; historically, it should be noted that the vast majority of the stock market’s long-term returns have been generated in the 4th quarter. Indeed, it is our view that much of the bad news and economic data, including a possible recession, have largely been priced into the market.…

Dear Clients and Friends, The sun has been shining lately, but the stock market has surely been putting a damper on our Spring! The stock market has had, to put it mildly, a very difficult start to the year. As I write this, the S&P 500 Index is down 17%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 27%, and bonds, typically a safe haven during market volatility, are down about 10%! In short, this market decline has taken pretty much everything down with it with few places to hide. Markets are selling off as investors digest rising inflation, rising interest rates, and…

The first quarter of 2022 was volatile for stocks. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.95%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.57%, and the MSCI All World ex USA Index was down 5.44%. Bonds, always considered less volatile than stocks, actually declined more with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index falling 5.93%. Obviously, rising inflationary pressures combined with the Federal Reserve’s established intention to raise interest rates makes low-yielding bonds unattractive. Cash yields also remain paltry and are, in fact, losing money when factoring in current high inflation rates. As such, we believe the durable dividend-paying equities we have positioned in…